Rudenshiold’s false distinction leads him to conelude that thernmain obstacle to privatization is “the transfer of property andrnresulting empowerment of non-Kazakhs.”rnDespite Ambassador Courtney’s guarded optimism, PresidentrnNazarbayev’s political strategy has been to consolidaternKazakh control in the wake of independence. To do it, he hasrncentralized power and created an organizational structure thatrnmimics the communist system of central command. Thernnumber of businesses scheduled for privatization has droppedrnfrom 5,000 last year to 1,500 today. Western accounting firmsrnadvising on privatization say the businesses finally put on thernauction block were the dregs. In September, Courtney admittedrnhe was troubled by the slowdown. Even more troublingrnwere indications that the 70-plus giant holding companiesrnwould not sign off their holdings in the marketplace andrndistribute the country’s wealth. The holding companies themselvesrnmay be sold as giant conglomerates. The Americanrnembassy’s economic officer quickly recognized that the conglomeratesrnwould be large enough to act as monopolies inrnmany areas.rnSince independence the government has tried to avoid anrnopen discussion of Kazakh-Russian tensions. The official linernwas that harmony reigned. Russians saw it otherwise. Shortlyrnafter independence, they got slapped in the face with newrnlaws and ethnic slights, such as the Program for the Developmentrnof Kazakh and Other National Languages. It called forrnconverting public record-keeping into Kazakh, which wasrnscheduled to begin in some areas as early as 1993. In Novemberrn1993, when the country had a division of Britain’s Lonrhornprint its new money, Russians who traded in their rubles foundrnnot a word of their language on the new bills, not a trace ofrntheir art, not the face or name of an ethnic Russian. It was asrnif all American currency were suddenly printed in Spanish orrnour only printable heroes and heroines had names likernDe Soto, Cortez, Serra, and De Leon. (The Spanish were notrnthe first to settle America, and neither were the Kazakhs thernfirst to occupy Kazakhstan.)rnLast year Sherkhan Murtaza, a Kazakh member of padiamentrnand Chairman of the Kazgosteleradio Committee,rntold other deputies that the country had no single citizenry.rnIt had “Kazakh peoples” and “representatives of peoples livingrnin Kazakhstan.” When officials occasionally commented onrnthe thousands of Russians moving to Russia, they always notedrnthat some were coming in and that net migration wasrnpositive. Only in August did the government statistical officernpublish figures that reflected what everyone already knew.rnThe figures showed an average net out-migration of 156,000rnpeople per year, or about one percent of the population.rnBirthrates for Russians had fallen steeply and neither Russiansrnnor other European minorities were having enough childrenrnto replace themselves. The Kazakh birthrate had fallen too,rnbut remained well above replacement level. With somern23,000 Kazakh immigrants moving in from other countries, includingrnChina, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, the annualrnincrease since 1990 has been 2.6 percent a year. In June, thernAlmaty Kazakh Radio Network announced that 60,000 of thern100,000 ethnic Kazakhs of Mongolia were now in Kazakhstan.rnRussians in the capitol of Almaty, a city created by Russiansrnfrom a Russian fortress and whose name at independence wasrnquickly changed from the Russian Alma Ata, say that in thernlast ten years the once predominanth’ Russian city of 1.2 millionrnhas become mainly Kazakh. Apartment prices plummetedrnin the winter of 1993-94, mainly because of the steadyrnoutflow of Russian “ooezhayooshis” or leavers. Both Russiansrnand Kazakhs believe the real reason for moving the capitolrnnorth is to extend Kazakh influence. If the move really happensrnand the government spends $15 to $50 billion on transportingrnmasses of paper and conference tables and the householdsrnof bureaucrats when the average pension is less than $20rna month, the government will have to show great benefits,rnespecially to the poor citizens of the heavily Kazakh southland.rnLike many timid leaders trying to create a revolution withoutrnthe clamor of discussion, President Nazarbayev speaksrnof unity while presiding over schism. At a conference of staternorgans in May 1993, the president declared that civil peacernand ethnic harmony were the “first goal of political work”rnand proposed that the population unite in Kazakhstani patriotism.rnPatriotism is earned by governments, not declared byrnindependence movements or desperate politicians.rnToday I observe no signs of Kazakhstani patriotism. I seernno house or apartment window flying the Kazakhstani flag, nornmatter what the occasion. The ratio of American to Kazakhstanirnflags hanging from car mirrors and fixed to windowsrnor stamped on T-shirts must be greater than 500 to one. Arncountry with diversity but without patriotism is a country byrnsurvey rather than character. Its character is that of a faultrnzone accumulating stress.rnThe first signs of trouble in this country came in Decemberrn1986, when Gorbachev dismissed D.A. Kunaev, a Kazakh,rnas first secretary of the Communist Party and appointedrnGenadii Kolbin, a Russian with no ties to Kazakhstan. Mobsrnof Kazakh students, Komsomol members, and volunteer militiarnarmed with knives and sticks beat up Russians in the streetsrnof Almaty. The eruption dissipated only when Russian factoryrnworkers began to mobilize and Moscow’s still strong militaryrnthreatened to take over. Today, President Nazarbayev hasrnnot achieved his “first goal of political work,” and the underlyingrncauses of the riots remain.rnCivil wars in countries like this are not started by massive uprisings,rnbut by fringe groups who start fighting that soon forcesrnthe rest of the population to take sides. Kazakhs have a numberrnof ultra-nationalist groups. In late December, one of theserngroups held a rally in front of the presidential palace commemoratingrntheir people who had died in the 1986 riots. Onernspeaker drew loud applause when he noted that the populationrnof the capitol was now 46 percent Kazakh and would bernover 50 percent by the year 2000. Their Russian fringe opponentsrnare the descendants of Cossack warrior settlers who builtrnthe fort city Verni, which later became Almaty.rnLast October, Kazakhs kidnapped the leader of the KazakhstanirnCossacks (descendants of the Russian Cossackrntroops who led the colonization of central Asia over 150 yearsrnago). The kidnappers immediately demanded that the Cossacksrnbe thrown out of civilian and military government postsrnand deported to Russia. Ethnic Russians appealed to Russiarnfor help, and the Russian foreign ministry demanded a maximumrnKazakh effort to free the victim and punish his captors.rnThe incident raises the very real prospect that there is a triggerrnthat will bring “Mother Russia” to the aid of people she stillrnconsiders family. The ruling Kazakhs responded to increasingrnKazakh rhetoric in December by banning Cossack activityrnaround the capitol for six months. Cossacks, however, continuernto demand that Russian be made an official govern-rn20/CHRONICLESrnrnrn