The Soviet Empire these days offers a formidable challenge even for the most experienced Kremlin watchers. While economic collapse, the communications revolution, the threat of another nuclear disaster like Chernobyl, the decline in life expectancy, and the environmental crisis are all tinder for fires of change, the power of nationalism still remains central.

Shortly after World War II there were perhaps 70 states recognized as sovereign nations in the world. Now the count is approximately 170. The breakup of the British Empire into a commonwealth of independent nations seems in retrospect as inevitable as water running downhill. There is no reason that this same growth of national identity should not play out in the Soviet Union, a country composed of over one hundred different nationalities and covering one-sixth of the earth’s surface.

Of all the places in the Soviet Empire where nationalism is asserting itself, the three Baltic nations have a unique claim. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia once enjoyed the status of independent statehood between 1920-1940, and they receive de jure recognition from the United States as well as countries in Western Europe. Much of the population has living memories of their freedom and how it was lost. Last summer the Kremlin was forced to admit of the Secret Protocols of the Stalin-Hitler Pact of 1939 that led to the forced annexation of the Baltic nations into the Soviet Empire. On the 50th anniversary of the Pact in August, 400,000 Baits formed a human chain across Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to dramatize peacefully their desire for freedom.

Within the Baltic nations, Lithuania, with its special links to the West, may play a key role. Its immediate neighbor is Poland, where the Soviet Union tolerated the peaceful ascent of Solidarity to political power. Soviet restraint thus far on the use of force in Poland, whatever the reason, is a powerful incentive to further national sovereignty in neighboring Lithuania.

The effect of the Polish model on Lithuania does not depend simply on its proximity. There is a deep historical and cultural connection that goes back to the 14th-century union of the two countries—making the second largest nation in Europe—and the conversion of Lithuania to the Catholic faith. The importance of a common faith is reflected in the fact that St. Casimir is regarded as the patron saint for what are now two separate countries—Lithuania and Poland.

An estimated 70 percent of modern day Lithuania is Catholic, and 80 percent of its 3.6 million citizens are ethnic Lithuanians. Both Latvia and Estonia, on the other hand, are historically Lutheran, and nearly 50 percent of their population is non-native. This past September it was announced that Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev will meet with Pope John Paul II in the Vatican while he visits Italy in late November. This unprecedented visit of an Eastern European pope will reverberate throughout the world but especially among the Catholics of Eastern Europe. Since he has agreed to receive the Soviet leader, the diplomatic minuet would only be completed when the Pope reciprocates and visits the Soviet Union. However, John Paul II has insisted that he will visit only if the Ukrainian Catholic Church is legalized and he can visit his flock in the Ukraine and Lithuania. The impact of his visit could be revolutionary.

In the midst of these religious developments, the leaders of the popular political movements in the Baltic nations have issued statements calling on the United Nations and the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe to assist them in becoming independent. The legal claim of the Baits, or any other of the 15 Soviet Republics for that matter, for the right of secession is supported in article 72 of the Soviet Constitution. Western legal recognition of the sovereignty of each of the Baltic nations lends further, if marginal, force to their assertion of independence.

If Gorbachev allows the Pope to visit, which seems likely, look to Lithuania first to see if the Soviet Empire will begin its transition to a Soviet Commonwealth of independent sovereign nations.