It is clear now that senior political operatives in the Democratic Party—and their allies in big business, big media, and big government—decided some time ago that neither Joe Biden nor any other surrogate can plausibly “win” the presidency in 2024. Although Democrats in 2020 were able to use their influence in government agencies and media to shape a narrative to explain their “victory” in ways that were at least somewhat convincing to low-information voters, a confluence of factors now make this level of spin almost impossible to pull off for the 2024 election.

Democratic policies promoted by the Biden administration have hammered the middle and working classes, and that has driven what looks like an insurmountable lead for President Trump in credible voter intention polls. While Democrat-run propaganda polling agencies will again do their best to skew the polling averages, they can only stray so far from the benchmark of credible polls and perceived public sentiment. To again steal the presidency under these conditions would be too implausible—even for ordinary and low-information voters to believe. Such an open theft from the common people could cause irreparable damage to the carefully constructed and curated “social justice” image propagated by the left.

So, if the movers and shakers see a Trump victory as a real possibility, how will they respond? My guess is they will try to establish “guardrails” and “safeguards” intended to prevent or limit the president’s ability to enact his agenda, as they did after Trump unexpectedly won the presidency in 2016. The effort to rein in the first Trump administration is now often referred to as “the nullification project,” and involved a collaboration between the administrative state, intelligence agencies, the foreign policy blob, media, and government-dependent big business.

The nullification project was confused and disjointed at first, but over time developed into a sophisticated organization able to suppress executive action, and engineer the selection of Joe Biden in 2020. Building from that foundation, the left’s nullification “Project 2025” (or what I call “NP25” for short) will be more effective than the 2017 version. But the acceptance that Trump will likely win the presidency doesn’t mean that the left no longer needs to worry about “fortifying” the 2024 elections, because complete nullification (and continued funding for the administrative state) requires that the Democrats control Congress as well.

When we think about lawfare, election fraud, and executive or legislative efforts to tilt the electoral playing field, we usually associate them with presidential elections. But the truth is that election “engineering” is as common, or even more common, in other elections—including congressional elections. So, while an expectation of loss could mean there is less money and effort devoted to rigging the presidential election, in the 2024 election cycle we are likely to see a massive increase in Democrat efforts to influence congressional races.

The mysterious disappearance of the “Red Wave” predicted by pollsters in 2022 is evidence that the infrastructure needed to engineer congressional majorities in 2024 is already in place, and simply needs to be strengthened with cash diverted from the presidential race. In this scenario, the loss of the presidency is a positive for the Democrats, as they will be able to claim that their loss at the top of the ticket is proof that our elections are free and fair. They will explain the lack of a Republican down-ballot sweep from a Trump victory as a lack of public trust in Trump, and a consequent preference for divided government. Since polling of congressional races is much less common than presidential polling, and harder for ordinary voters to evaluate, this outcome would be slightly more plausible and acceptable than outright theft of the presidential race for an unpopular candidate.

What can be done to stop NP25? If the right can win control of Congress, it can cripple their project by defunding the parasitic agencies, and their partners, that depend on taxpayer support. But to do that, we need to ensure relatively free and fair elections, and unfortunately almost nothing has been done to reform or repeal the carefully constructed “legal” framework that enables fraud.

The quality of election processes in the United States has been steadily decreasing for decades, and the “special” election processes introduced in response to the COVID “emergency” made them among the least credible in the world. Rather than repeal the special processes after COVID, most states have now expanded and institutionalized them. Inaccurate and bloated voter rolls, extended voting periods, nontransparent machine processes, and mail-in voting make elections impossible to monitor and verify, and easy to rig.

The Democrats have recently pushed for the elimination of voter ID and to allow illegal aliens to vote.While they will take advantage of these outrageous “reforms” if they can, their primary purpose in pushing them is to distract us from the very real vulnerabilities already built into the system.

While the odds are stacked against those of us who simply want free, fair, transparent, and verifiable elections, the Democrats don’t have all the advantages. Ideologically based and incompetent Democratic governance has created the worst inflation in our history, and driven a decrease in real wages and growing unemployment. The politicization and corruption of our educational, legal, and judicial institutions has led to a breakdown in morality and rule of law, and increased crime and violence in society.

All of this pain has been borne by the middle and working classes, and it is driving a massive shift in political allegiance. Previously reliable Democratic constituencies like young people, nongovernment labor unions, blacks, and Hispanics, are increasingly looking for political alternatives. A defection of even a limited percentage of these constituencies makes election fraud harder for Democrats to accomplish, and much, much harder to hide. In 2024, those who organize drop box mules, feed duplicate ballots into machines at night, or steal the mail-in ballots of elderly people in nursing homes, need to be looking over their shoulders and wondering if their supposed “comrades” are really down with the program.

The other advantage Republicans have is that since 2020, voters have become ever more aware of the importance of a level playing field, and of the ways elections can be rigged, so they are much less likely to believe the propaganda media or the assertions of government agencies. In the end, short of more serious action by Republicans to put a stop to fraud, we can only hope that citizen awareness will be enough.