In the 2002 Hollywood thriller The Sum of All Fears (based on the 1991 Tom Clancy novel of the same name), protagonist Jack Ryan (played by a young Ben Affleck) races the clock to save the world from nuclear war. Ryan, a CIA analyst more interested in getting to the truth than in playing politics, realizes that both Russia and the U.S. are being set up and played off one another by a mysterious, manipulative, and monied cabal of stateless billionaires. These fictional “globalists” would profit, both financially and politically, from the distrusting superpowers’ mutually-assured destruction. It is only through Ryan’s persistence and wit in opening a last minute, backdoor channel of communication with each of the presidents of Russia and the U.S.—after the nuclear launch sequences had already been initiated—that Armageddon is adjourned for another generation.
What is striking about the fictional story, which is a mimesis of the very real Cuban Missile Crisis (1961), is how little time or room to maneuver heads of state and other decision-makers have in a moment when action and reaction are played out in real time—not to mention when powerful voices are clamoring from all sides for retribution and preemption. In real-life, U.S. President John F. Kennedy and Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev were able to avoid multiple megadeaths (one megadeath = one million lives) and civilizational annihilation by resisting for as long as possible the demands of their military chiefs for first-strike action, and by opening a secret backchannel of communication and negotiation.
The related lesson from both art and history is that no matter how few want nuclear war and all the devastation that comes with it, events can quickly spiral out of control. The human forces serving the dark gods of War and Destruction for profit and power can first hypnotize and then unwittingly drag us towards the cliffs and the infernal abyss. The nations of the earth may be under such a spell at this very moment.
In recent weeks, the outgoing Biden administration has ignored the lessons of history and determined to up the ante in the failed conflict with Russia over Ukraine. In deploying U.S. made ATACMs (long-range, supersonic, tactical ballistic missiles) along with NATO Storm Shadow cruise missiles, the U.S. and European allies are now directly attacking Russian military assets on Russia’s mainland. This is a war, but called anything other than War (which would require congressional approval).
It is also a foolish geopolitical game played by a lame-duck Biden administration. The problem is that this time around, the Biden administration risks provoking a global nuclear conflict. While U.S. officials assert that use of these weapons doesn’t increase the risk of nuclear war, Russian officials say the direct opposite, and that they are reserving their rights to respond to U.S. aggression in the “strategic defense of Russia.” Even NATO officials are now casually mentioning how an “exchange of limited nuclear strikes” might be manageable, i.e., to not actually result in a large-scale nuclear war. This is self-delusion with diabolic consequences.
In the hours following the ATACMs use, Russia launched test sorties of Oreshnik missiles into Ukraine as a “shot-across-the-bow” warning to the U.S. and NATO. Oreshniks are intermediate-range, hypersonic (Mach 10+) ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear payloads. The Russian government gave the U.S. government advanced warning through nuclear emergency channels before launching, so as to avoid a death spiral of actions between the two militaries. Even with a forewarning, there is little the U.S. military can do to stop Oreshniks. The U.S. admits that these new Russian missiles are essentially impossible to intercept with existing defense technologies. At least Russia’s leaders showed restraint in firing blanks, i.e., by not loading the missiles with nuclear or large conventional payloads.
This raises the question, who is advocating for this action? What group of individuals or corporations is blithely pushing the risk of nuclear conflict to the limit? The so-called neocon branch of the U.S. government, and its financial backers in the defense industry, seem likely culprits. President-elect Trump won the popular vote in part because he promised to end the war in Ukraine (and its funding with American taxpayers’ money), and to pull the world back from the brink of World War III. In the meantime, rogue elements in our government and in Europe are willing not only to disregard the will of the people, but to risk the end of human civilization.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists have maintained the Doomsday Clock, a symbolic measure of how close mankind is to destroying its own world, since 1947. Given the renewed risk of nuclear conflict, the Doomsday Clock was moved forward last year to an uncomfortable 90 seconds to midnight, symbolizing the world is “the closest to global catastrophe it has ever been.” The events of recent weeks may cause the Science and Security Board to advance the clock even further forward.
The point here is that the risk of nuclear war cannot be controlled or contained. One mistake, one misjudgment, one miscalculation, and events can escalate beyond any human power to undo the disaster.
We can all see the dangers. It is a “known known” among military strategists of the leading power that no one can win a nuclear war. No one wants that outcome. So why is the Biden administration playing this game of “Russian Roulette,” where there is a meaningfully non-zero chance of a cataclysmic outcome?
We cannot get to Jan. 20th quickly enough.
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