The United States’ war with Iran presents much higher margins of risk than the raid in Caracas on Jan. 3, or even the Twelve-Day War in June 2025, in which the U.S. and Israel bombed Iranian nuclear facilities. This new conflict carries the danger of escalation and mission creep once its immediate operational objectives are complete: the degradation of Iran’s multilayered air defenses and the destruction of its navy.

One tactic that may backfire is the U.S. and Israel’s encouraging rebellion by Iran’s Kurds against the government in Tehran. Considering the plight of Kurds in northern Syria, who have been effectively abandoned by the U.S. under Turkish pressure, their cousins in Iran should carefully weigh their options before throwing in their lot with the U.S. and Israel.

What happened to the Kurds in Syria is emblematic of Turkey’s increased geopolitical power in the Middle East and its ability to shape to its own ends the actions of the United States. Turkey has opportunistically exploited Iran’s declining fortunes and Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine to expand its influence, to the point where it has become the strongest military, political, and economic player in the Greater Middle East.

What distinguishes Ankara from other players in the Middle East is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s astute reading of the U.S. global position. Erdoğan calculates that the U.S. will inevitably retreat from its role as global hegemon to refocus on its own hemisphere. This grants Turkey much greater room for maneuver than in the past.

In the meantime, America remains the world’s sole superpower. The prospect of Russia having its own sphere of influence is remote: Moscow’s goal in the coming decades will be to hold the Russian Federation together. China is far from establishing itself as a geopolitical alternative to America. In Turkey’s strategic neighborhood, China’s influence remains limited.

It is for this chaotic world, in which America remains the world’s dominant yet declining superpower, that Erdoğan has been preparing over the past two decades. Turkey’s ambition is to be the center of an informal empire, the heir of the neo-Ottoman tradition. But it also considers its continued membership in the U.S. empire as essential, as well as its privileged relationship with the empire’s superpower. Balancing these two goals is the exercise Erdoğan has well mastered.

Erdoğan’s current priority is to serve America so that he can use it for his ends at the right time. To that end, he wants to gain greater influence within the U.S. empire so that he can persuade the United States to recognize Turkey as its own viceroyalty in southwestern Eurasia. Meanwhile, Russia and China remain mired in their own backyards, and America has been goaded by Israel into action against Iran.

The current conflict with Iran narrows Trump’s options for the region, as does the death of potential U.S.-friendly successors to the Ayatollah. Trump may be persuaded by Erdoğan that Turkey’s expansion into Iran’s former sphere of influence—the remnant of the Shiite Crescent from the Caspian to the Mediterranean Sea—will offer strategic benefits to America (even if Bibi Netanyahu begs to differ).

Whether one day Turkey, too, will become an enemy capable of challenging America is a question that Trump hopes will not arise while he is still in the White House.