Even though California’s current crisis has occupied the attention of Americans—and understandably has induced a certain amount of pessimism about the future—there is a state that gives us reason to be hopeful: my beloved Texas.

In a recent essay at Unherd, writer and urbanologist Joel Kotkin sings the praises of Texas, noting its rapid growth and “soaring” economy:

Texas today is irrepressible. If the numbers are right, it could soon pass California and become America’s most populous state…. This buoyancy isn’t hard to understand. Shaking off its reactionary heritage, Texans now wallow in progress, building more and making more than anyone else, with some boozing and dancing as they go.

Kotkin predicts that Texas will become the model for future states, ushering in a “Texification” of America instead of the dreaded “Californication.” With its few regulations, low tax burden, easy going spirit, and “racial pragmatism,” the Lone Star State enjoys the best of all worlds, fostering innovation and accruing abundance while successfully addressing the problems that normally accompany urban growth.

As a longtime resident of Texas, I adamantly concur with Kotkin that Texas is our best state and that Texans are the best people. It must be admitted, however, that Texas’s material progress and ever-increasing population comes with a substantial cost, one with the potential to turn this second Texas miracle into a long-term disaster.

Once upon a time, Texas was big open state led by such swelling urban centers as DFW, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio and could boast of lots of cheap property, relatively light traffic, and plenty of opportunity. Sure, the state lacked the natural beauty of California as well as the cultural advantages of New York or Boston, but it was the ideal place for buying a home, having a family, and doing honest work. Ironically, the state’s idiotic constitution—which boasts over 300 amendments, gives more power to the lieutenant governor than to the governor, and a legislature that only meets for a few months every other year—has proven to be a blessing in disguise to incoming businesses and residents who are largely left alone.

Because of the massive influx of domestic migrants, however, the situation is deteriorating. Despite the mass production of ever more suburban subdivisions replete with miniature McMansions and faux-urban condos, property prices have skyrocketed. The houses in my DFW suburban neighborhood have almost tripled in value (along with housing insurance and property taxes) and rent in nearby apartments has risen exponentially as well.

With so much new revenue filling public coffers, one would imagine that this would at least result in better schools, new infrastructure, and more public services, but this has not been the case. Texan school districts have a bad habit of blowing their money on expensive gimmicks (e.g., iPads for every student), bloated bureaucracies, and extravagant extracurricular programs (e.g., marching band and football). New roads and bridges are constructed at a glacial pace and private toll roads shamelessly fleece the suburban drivers who depend on them. Public services are usually passable in the suburbs (though I would caution against drinking tap water here), but often inadequate in cities where blight, crime, and homelessness are continuing challenges.

And though Texas is the second largest state in the union with vast stretches of empty land, it’s getting crowded here. Supermarkets, gyms, and retailers are bustling with people at all hours of the day. Traffic is a constant headache with so many more commuters driving as recklessly as possible (Dallas and Fort Worth, in fact, compete for having the worst drivers in the nation). Even the cities’ many parks and nature preserves are routinely filled with pedestrians, cyclists, children, and pets.

While Texans have seen an upgrade in their cuisine (not just barbecue and Whataburger), beer (in addition to Shiner Bock), universities (where Kotkin teaches), and overall coolness (thanks to Elon Musk and Joe Rogan), this ultimately means little to the average Texan who’s struggling to pay for groceries, fearing for his life on the roads, and spending over half his income on rent. What does it matter that Dallas has the highest number of millionaires and billionaires when it also has the highest number of fatal car accidents? Will the residents of Houston care that their city will be the biggest in the country by 2100 when their kids waste their time in a ratty classroom portable at a subpar school?

Indeed, the great migration into Texas is precipitating another great counter-migration … of Texans. That is, Texans are moving out of Texas. I notice this firsthand whenever I take family trips to Oklahoma or Arkansas. There are Texas license plates everywhere, and every conversation with supposed locals reveals that they and many others come from some suburb of Dallas or Houston.

Although other states stand to profit from this trend, it should worry Texans that so many of their neighbors are being pushed out in favor of newcomers whose primary cultural experience has been in a failed blue state. Even if they are not among those bringing their progressive politics with them, the cultural conditioning is there. They are not going to flinch at the housing prices, the mediocre schools, the rise in crime, or the prevailing secular, cosmopolitan worldview. Compared to where they came from, Texas probably seems like a conservative utopia.

Over time, these lower expectations combined with the exodus of native Texans could gradually help flip Texas to a blue state with all the dysfunction that entails. While moderates like Kotkin fear the excesses of cowboys like Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton upsetting the new Texan elites, the real danger that Texans face is one of these elites taking over the levers of power and imposing an undemocratic oligarchy that reduces Texas to a modern feudal state like California, where billionaires and progressive politicians rule over a welfare state that impoverishes the middle class and subsidizes a vast underclass.

To avoid this decline, the flow of incoming residents needs to slow down substantially. That means local and state leaders need to stop offering generous tax breaks and other such incentives to every large employer, create a system of regulatory and economic preferences for native Texans, and combat corruption and waste in the state and local governments. In short, Texas needs to put Texan families and workers first.

Along these lines, a restoration of order and democratic norms needs to happen in the states that are depopulating. This would involve eliminating sanctuary cities, refusing federal bailouts to bankrupt states and cities, and cleaning up their voting system (i.e. requiring voter ID and outlawing ballot harvesting and mass mail-in voting). As things stand, residents in these states appear to feel they don’t have any recourse to solve many of their problems besides moving to Texas or Florida.

If this discussion seems to echo the immigration debate, that’s because it’s essentially the same issue. Whether it’s Texas or the United States, there is a saturation point that threatens to capsize even the most prosperous polity. Thus, before the rest of the country flocks to Texas, residents of failing blue states should consider fixing  them first. Instead of voting with their feet, they should vote for better leaders. Instead of seeking greener pastures elsewhere, they should cultivate their own pastures. Instead of abandoning their hometowns, they should work to build them up, run for local office, and join civic organizations.

Most of all, everyone should understand that all growth comes with growing pains and that these pains exist to ensure healthy and sustainable growth. If we ignore this, we will all end up recreating the places we’re trying to escape.