On September 25, President George W. Bush spoke at the United Nations to condemn human-rights abuses by the government of Myanmar, siding with Burmese political dissidents.  Throughout October, protests in Myanmar grew more aggressive, and the government backlash became more cruel.  But why is President Bush endorsing regime change now?

Since 1988, Burma (Myanmar) has been ruled by a military junta that finances itself with opiate production.  The U.S. government has been largely silent on this junta’s excesses because American notables have been profiting from the drug trade.  Furthermore, Burmese officials were cooperating with Chinese business interests.  There is no need for regime change when the right people are making money.

Since the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan, Afghani opiate production has dwarfed that of Burma.  Opium has become Afghanistan’s chief export, and Afghanistan is controlled by American interests.  China is a major refiner, distributor, and consumer of these Afghani opiates and is working with the United States to move the dope.  Burma’s ability to generate profit has collapsed, and the junta has been reduced to a liability—second-rate competition.

In his U.N. speech, President Bush implied that Burma needs a new government.  He plans to tighten economic sanctions on Myanmar, citing that dictatorship’s appalling human-rights record over the last 19 years (the last 7 of which he has been President).  The Chinese are doing their part by eradicating the poppy fields, Myanmar’s chief source of revenue.  They are able to apply this pressure because they own a lot of northern Burma and have a track record of cooperating with the Burmese government.

Beijing’s crackdown on Burmese dope hasn’t cleaned up the streets of Chengdu, or Shanghai, or any other Chinese city.  In fact, heroin use has spiked in cities and the countryside alike.  So, with Burma being squeezed, where are the drugs coming from?

One Chinese company, China Railway Shisiju Group Corporation, is participating in the World Bank’s “Emergency Transport Rehabilitation Project” for Afghanistan.  Set up in 1947, Shisiju Group is controlled by the Beijing government; thanks to its top party connections, it has the privilege of being able to do business overseas and is a preferred contractor for Chinese transportation infrastructure.

In Afghanistan, Shisiju Group is helping to rebuild second and tertiary roads (agricultural access), bombed-out airstrips, and damaged highways.  In a country where growing opium is the largest industry, tertiary roads are very important.

Air transport is the most reliable way to reach China from Afghanistan: Air freight is unloaded in the sparsely populated Uyghur region of Xinjiang, an autonomous region of the People’s Republic of China, which has more airports than any other autonomous region or province in China (and has a Muslim minority).  Truck freight travels through Pakistan first, then on to Xinjiang.  (About 70 percent of Afghanistan’s drugs are moved through Pakistan.)  Naturally, Xinjiang is experiencing a spike in heroin traffic from Pakistan and Afghanistan.

There are four fast roads to Xinjiang: Three stretch across China, and one, the Karakoram highway, goes down to Pakistan.  The current Pakistani prime minister, Shaukat Aziz, left Citibank in New York after it was revealed that his employer was laundering billions for Mexican drug lords.  (Aziz still peddles World Bank loans on the side.)

Of the roads that lead deeper into China, two go westward through the north; one skirts along the southeast boarder; and they all end up in Chengdu.  The major road from Burma to central China also goes to Chengdu.  Chengdu is the natural meeting point for the great opium producers.

In addition to building airstrips and farm roads in Afghanistan, Shisiju Group has another World Bank contract to finish the highway from Chengdu to Xiamen (one of China’s rich eastern cities).  With that, a speedy heroin supply chain across China will be complete.

Chengdu has become a financial center for international banks, including Citigroup, BNP Paribas, and Standard Chartered, as well as Singaporean financial interests.  Chengdu is the capital of Sichuan, one of the poorest Chinese provinces in terms of per capita income.

All of this leaves the Burmese government in a very precarious position.  No longer a powerful supplier of heroin, Burma is half-colonized by China and has a soon-to-be starving populace.  President Bush and his friends won’t miss the chance to make political hay by undermining an unpopular and useless ally.  In less than a year, Chinese liberators will find Than Shwe in a spider-hole.