Far too many political consultants have made a fortune claiming electoral success requires the sort of sophisticated, nuanced, and supposedly mystical wisdom that they alone possess and are happy to provide … for a handsome fee. Such hogwash is deeply ingrained within the minds of swamp dwellers. Why? Because far too many of them lack the thing that undergirds true political accomplishments, such as winning an election or passing successful legislation: common sense.

So what does common sense tell us is the likelihood of Republicans being subsumed beneath a gathering electoral wave in the coming midterms?   

Stumbling into the 2026 midterm election, Republicans hold the presidency and majorities in both chambers of Congress. With that kind of muscle-power (delivered by the electorate after a hard-won campaign and four years in the wilderness), much is expected of President Donald J. Trump and the GOP congressional majority.

By contrast, Democrats are now in the minority. Thus, little is expected from them. The “hate has no home here” Party is ironically united in its virulent hatred of President Trump and his MAGA supporters, and all that is demanded by their base is that they work to recapture their erstwhile House and Senate majorities.

To attain this end, Democrats incessantly carp and craft chaos, hoping their malignant obstructionism can distract from the fact that they created the very problems besetting their voters. By ascribing the blame instead to President Trump and the GOP, however, they are sure to avoid that blame. Per usual, Democrats are aided and abetted in this task by the media, as well as by an army of non-profits, academics, and other fellow travelers who survive and thrive with the aid of taxpayer money.

For President Trump and the GOP, the task is much steeper because the public entrusted them to instruct and set the national agenda. Captaining the ship of state through the swamp, President Trump and his congressional majorities must honor their promise to be responsible stewards of the public trust by enacting sound legislation that provides practical and palpable benefits to the American people.  Democratic obstructionism being a given, unfortunately, the task has been made ever more arduous by repeated instances of political self-sabotage and obstructionism from within the GOP.

While the public assumes that Republican legislators are aligned with the president, as is often the case in politics, the reality is quite different. Prospective legislation, as well as appointments, have been slow-walked by Republicans in Congress—often to the point of being rendered dead-on-arrival.  What this Republican majority fails to see is that this dearth of productive activity on their part is developing into the worst of all worlds: Democrats are motivated to defeat them; Independents have no reason to vote to retain them; and Republicans/MAGA disdain them. This is not a recipe for electoral success.

In President Trump’s case, the issue is clearly not one of idleness. Indeed, he has been anything but idle. He has issued executive orders on a host of domestic and foreign policy matters. And while some have been struck down by the courts, many remain in effect and, combined with his energetic federal administration, have benefited the nation—notably by curbing illegal immigration and securing our borders.

Nevertheless, between the corporate leftist media narrative that he is an agent of chaos and his own occasional unforced errors in messaging, Trump too often appears to be focused on issues other than those the public is most concerned about, especially independent voters and those 2024 first-time Trump voters. Frequent spats with members of both political parties, celebrities, sports figures, and others steal the spotlight away from positive news about the president’s moves to help working Americans.

This is not another cliched complaint about Trump’s distracting “mean tweets,” for it is compounded by the “shiny ball” problem. Some issues do not need to be highlighted for the public as being at the top of the president’s agenda, and certainly not at the expense of those the public considers more important. For example, while the situation with Greenland and its potential impact on U.S. national security is serious, the public cares less about Greenland than about the green in their own wallets. 

With a hostile media attacking Republican claims, it is imperative that the party avoid shooting itself in the foot with unfocused messaging. Even as Republican and MAGA voters relish the unfiltered messaging and unorthodox political practices of the Trump years, it lands differently with independents and soft-GOP voters. Increasingly, the president is losing their support because his rhetoric and style have overshadowed the substance of his accomplishments. 

The president’s time at the Bully Pulpit would be much better spent constantly and consistently talking to Americans about the economy and how he and the GOP Congress have made progress in cleaning up the mess left behind by Democrats. Indeed, the entire GOP—from the federal to the local level—needs to continually remind voters that the Democrats are responsible for the current fiscal predicament and join the president in this messaging.

In the binary choice of 2024, these newer voters went with Trump over both Biden and Harris to fix the economy and stem illegal immigration. President Trump’s personality was not an issue when compared to their failures. But now Republicans are in charge, and they don’t have time for congressional bumbling and failure to back the president or the administration’s intense pursuit of too many shiny objects. In the face of all this bickering and wild swings in messaging, the crucial independent voters tune Republicans out and prepare to vote them out.

For President Trump and congressional Republicans, a potential electoral timebomb is ticking—and it is later than they think. Americans are practical people, relishing common sense governance and expecting their public servants to do the right thing and in the right way. 

Thus, as the midterms approach, what is needed to save the GOP congressional majority and, ergo, the Trump presidency itself, is precisely what is needed to make America great again: sound legislation that improves the ability of Americans to pursue happiness in ways everyone has identified: the pocketbook “affordability” issues pushing the American Dream out of reach, such as inflation, healthcare, and homeownership; stemming the flow of illegal immigration; protecting the freedom of conscience from DEI; and defending our nation. 

Doubtless, the president and Republican Members of Congress know what needs to be done. Unity, creativity, and collaboration in advancing practical, helpful legislation are the keys to a successful midterm election. In other words, they had better speak to their voters’ practical problems and hope the voters feel the benefit—or else. 

Alas, knowing and doing are two distinctly different things. This helps explain why some in the GOP Congress are tempted to abandon President Trump and his populist Republican agenda. These Republicans ought to have a care. In an election, even a midterm, you cannot run away from a president of your own party. The president is always on the ballot and this president’s issues, if not always his personality, are extremely popular with Republican voters.

Early in the 2006 midterm election cycle, the GOP congressional majority sensed the electoral tide was turning into a Democrat tsunami. The Iraq War had devolved into a deadly insurgency, and at home, the economy was sputtering toward the “Great Deflation.” In the White House, President George W. Bush’s approval rating was circling the drain. Then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Rahm Emmanuel labeled congressional GOP incumbents and candidates as “Rubber Stamps for President Bush,” and asked the irate electorate to vote Democrat to “send George Bush a message.” 

After the August recess, a House colleague of mine told me about an encounter he had with an independent voter who had always voted for him in prior elections. Sadly, he informed my colleague that he would be voting for his Democratic challenger. Perplexed, my colleague asked why. “It’s nothing against you, but I don’t like how the country is going, and this is the only way I can send a message to George Bush.” 

My colleague was not reelected, and the GOP’s “permanent majority” was toast.

It would be wise for today’s GOP congressional majority and President Trump to remember that their success or failure will be shared. If Republicans in Congress turn on President Trump in a vain attempt to save their own seats, they will have facilitated Democrat obstructionism and will be remembered for having done so. 

While this will please Democrats, their voters are never going to vote for Republicans. All that will be accomplished is the displeasure of the voters who do vote Republican. They will express their displeasure either by turning out to vote against you in a primary election or by not turning out at all. As a practical matter, then, no matter how much establishment Republicans criticize Trump, they will lose. And they will deserve it.

Unfortunately, what the rest of America does not deserve—and cannot afford—is a Democratic congressional majority. 

Throughout the history of democracy, from the Athenian city-state to Main Street U.S.A., addressing and messaging on the practical problems facing voters and showing that you share their concerns has always been the winning political strategy. The plain truth is that this is just common sense—an unfortunately rare commodity among all politicians and parties that is often praised and little heeded.